Why You’ll Be Happier This Summer

Statistically, you’re an unhappy camper.

Maybe you’re not. But statistics don’t lie—do they? So, we’re just going to assume you’re mad.

To be clear, I’m not the one with the statistics. Axios, by way of The Harris Poll, is the one with the statistics. And there, the folks tell me that, statistically, you’re an unhappy camper.

Why are you bent out of shape, you might rightly be wondering?

Well, to steal a famous phrase from the Clinton era: It’s the economy, stupid.

But let’s back up a bit. Let me share with you what Axios is reporting:

“Republicans, rural residents, renters, women and singles disproportionately feel like they’re in a big fat funk financially, our debut Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll reveals. It’s not what voters see — the economy’s improving with rising wages and low unemployment. It’s how they feel… Inflation has dipped in recent months but remains top of mind for many Americans. Six in 10 surveyed say they’re now “triggered” by trips to the grocery store.

Republicans are more likely than overall respondents to say they’re “angry” about high prices. Renters are disproportionately likely to say they’re “anxious.” Grocery purchases are the top way (72%) Americans say they feel inflation in their daily lives. That’s followed by gas prices (56%). Two-thirds think food will keep getting more expensive. More than half worry that falling gas prices will reverse.

Harris’ research also suggests that many Americans are “consuming in denial” — continuing to spend and run up credit card bills even though they’re short on cash — and that “they’re looking to deflect some of the blame” to leaders in government, said John Gerzema, CEO of The Harris Poll.”

So, that’s why you’re unhappy.

And I get it.

Though I don’t feel Inflation: American Style here in Portugal, I do hear regularly from childhood best friend, Jim, back in South Louisiana. I hear about food prices and gas prices and all the brazen shoplifting that, apparently, has become an Olympic sport in America. (Side note: I was absolutely floored on my trip to the U.S. last fall. Every Walgreens or CVS I entered in Denver, Baton Rouge, and New York had just about everything under lock and key. It felt like a movie set for Escape from New York or The Purge.)

Though the economy is supposedly hunky-dory, something definitely seems amiss. Like when you absolutely know someone is lying to you, but you just don’t know what the lie is. That’s the U.S. economy.

The White House, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, economists like Paul Krugman at the New York Times… we can smell their BS wafting on a stale breeze. Just hard to tell what direction the breeze is coming from, though, so it’s hard to figure out how to counteract it.

Back to Axios/Harris for a beat or two longer:

• 88% of respondents agree with this statement: “Gas, groceries and housing costs — not stocks — are the real economic indicators I care about.”
• 76% of respondents agree with this statement: “Economists may say things are getting better, but we’re not feeling it where I live.”

This is where D.C. struggles the most: Messaging.

Trying to convince people that their lives are just peachy if only they’d open their eyes is never going to work for politicians and bureaucrats, and their messengers in the mainstream media. People feel what they feel, and you cannot tell them that their feelings are wrong—even if their feelings are, in fact, wrong.

People have to come to their own conclusions based on what they sense in their own lives. That whole “lead a horse to water” axiom.

You have to sympathize with people.

Show them you’re on their team and that you’re fighting the same battle alongside them.

This is why D.C. and her legion of bureaucrats always sound so tin-eared. They tell you what you should be feeling, rather than showing you they understand why your feelings tell you that you’re an unhappy camper.

I suspect, however, that you’re going to be happier by this summer.

The Federal Reserve is about to start showing us that it understands (though it really doesn’t).

The Fed has, by its own admission, at least three rate-cuts lined up for 2024. That’s going to change a lot of financial dynamics, which will cause changes in emotional dynamics.

Rate cuts will boost stock and bond prices. They’ll send mortgage rates down, which will make housing more affordable and boost the housing market. Corporate boards that have been dealing with the impacts of higher interest payment costs and inflation on their operations will begin to feel more chipper, and chipper boardrooms lead to investment in R&D, new stores, expansion, and hiring.

And all of that flows through consumer sentiment.

My bet: By late summer, the Fed will have cut rates at least two times… stocks, bonds, crypto, and housing prices will be ascendant… and consumer sentiment will be bullish.

And unhappy campers will be happy again.