2025 Could Be an Epic Year for Crypto.
We are now just days away from Trump v2…
In the weeks since DJT reclaimed his right to occupy the Oval Office, I and much of the rest of the economically cognizant world have been reading tea leaves and consulting our Ouija boards, trying to divine just where Trump will lead us all, based on his declared policies…
If you’ve been reading Field Notes in the wake of the election, you’ll know that my primary concerns have been for the economy and the financial markets. What happens with stocks and with crypto depends upon a trio of Trump platforms: deportation, tariffs, and tax cuts that will benefit the uber-rich more than everyone else. (That’s not my analysis; that comes from a host of non-partisan mathletes who’ve run the numbers to gauge who’s hurt and who’s helped by Trump’s stated tax wishes.)
Now, however, Trump’s team has begun floating the idea that tariffs won’t be blanketed across the world but will be targeted at specific industries… There’s talk as well that just maybe scorched-earth deportation will also be a bit more targeted, since awareness is growing for what I said was likely—namely that expelling immigrant workers (legal or illegal) will have a devastating impact on housing and food prices.
And so, my worries about what lies ahead have tempered. A bit.
Both tariffs and deportation are issues that could cripple Trump… He promised to bring down inflation, with voters all over the country saying “the price of eggs is why Trump got my vote.”
But if the price of eggs… and milk, and bread, and bacon, and a box of Ho Hos… are rising because food-ingredient costs are surging because immigrant ag workers have been sent packing, well, that’ll enrage voters.
Team Trump seems to be figuring this out.
What sounds good on a soap box doesn’t always play so well in Peoria once you try to put it into practice. Pesky knock-on effects!
Because rationality seems to be welling up inside the Trump camp, I am increasingly bullish on 2025.
Modest tariffs targeted to certain industries America wants to strengthen, protect, or rebuild aren’t a bad idea.
Deportation that takes into account the employment needs of certain sectors will play much better in the economy and not jack inflation to the moon.
On taxes, I am not sure what’s going to happen there. At the moment, all still seems amorphous. Wall Street is certainly eager for smart tax breaks, at least for business. We shall see what comes to pass there.
As it’s currently taking shape, stocks could have quite a nice 2025.
But crypto…. Whoa doggy!
That sector could see the mother of all bull runs, something I’ve been saying is possible since this bull market began early in 2023.
I’m not going to rehash all the points I’ve made in recent months. I’ll just say that Trump’s stance on a bitcoin reserve, on naming pro-crypto policymakers to the Treasury and the SEC, and his push to make crypto profits tax free for projects based in the US… all of those combined aren’t just tailwinds—they’re hurricane winds blowing in favor of the crypto economy.
As I’ve noted in previous dispatches, 2025 could be a banner year for crypto teams/projects relocating to the US because of the tax issue. It also will likely mean that US citizens will no longer be ring-fenced out of so many crypto opportunities that they currently miss out on because crypto teams are so scared of the SEC. That’s already changing, with lots of commentary on Twitter/X talking about setting up shop officially in the US.
What I’m saying is that assuming Trump’s trio of taxes, tariffs, and deportations are, in fact, scaled back to more logical ends, then you will want to be overweight in stocks and crypto in 2025—particularly crypto.
Stocks will run, but very few will 10x or 20x or 100x.
In crypto, that’s going to be a weekly, if not daily occurrence in many segments.
I recently told my Frontier Fortunes subscribers about a new segment of the AI market that is gaining lots of heat. The crypto I recommended has already doubled in a few weeks, though it has been a roller-coaster of ups and downs (as expected).
And I recently told them about a play in the so-called Decentralized Science space, DeSCI, that could easily 10x. DeSCI is the true bleeding edge of crypto, basically decentralized crowd-funding for medical/pharmaceutical research. Hardly anyone is paying attention to that space at the moment, but I guarantee you’re going to hear a lot about DeSCI in 2025, which means DeSCI cryptocurrencies could very well shoot the moon this year.
Of course, if my take on Trump’s softening position is wrong, well, all bets are off. Things could get very ugly, very fast in the economy, and that would kneecap stocks and mercilessly punish crypto.
For now, though, I’m going with my bullish stance that Trump is softening out of necessity.
And that’s going to ring in a helluva good run for stocks and crypto this year.
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