What Happens If Trump Tries for a Third Term?

We pick up today where yesterday we left off yesterday… addressing a couple of reader questions about what I see for America over the remainder of the 2020s and into the 2030s.

Yesterday, I spelled out the fiscal and economic woes that could lead to crisis. Today, I’ll look at the socio-political challenges ahead. I risk ticking off some readers, so please just read this is a dispassionate take on processes already underway.

As I regularly say: It is what it is, and you either get mad that someone points out the obvious, or you accept that these are the kinds of events that lead to bigger challenges (and opportunities) going forward.

Basically, I see the social divide in America widening, probably to the point that America as we know it today—50 unified states—ceases to exist. Or it exists but in a very different form, likely one more aligned with the original version of America—a federation of states—in which states hold most of the power and DC is much more of a weaker, decentralized collection of lawmakers.

As I’ve written about many times before—and it’s not exactly news—Red America and Blue America hate each other with such passion that secession movements are on the rise.

Social and political conflicts right now are tearing the US apart…

What could be a “trigger event” that would lead to a real break up?

My suspicion is that Trump may try to pursue a third term in office—in clear violation of the constitution.

If Trump does pursue a third term based on some claim about the 2020 election being stolen… or because some Evangelical lawmaker from Oklahoma or Mississippi or wherever said God told him to introduce a law that allows Trump to remain in office… that will instigate a constitutional crisis like America has rarely, if ever seen.

It will irreparably divide the nation between Trump supporters willing to fight to the death to keep him in office, and Americans on the left who will fight to the death to keep Trump from staying in power. (Again, that paragraph isn’t me picking sides; I’m just laying out the raw facts of a potential future I see transpiring in the run-up to the 2028 election season.)

That is a very real risk of crisis a few years out.

How to invest for these events…

The prescription here is very simple. I write about it all the time: own gold, Swiss francs, and bitcoin.

Gold is an “up only” asset so long as American debt is an “up only” albatross.

I don’t see the US reducing its debt. I see the US increasing its debt, and—as I wrote yesterday—I see the US ultimately relying on gold in some fashion to reset the dollar.

So I want to own gold.

Bitcoin falls under that same argument. It will, however, be a much more volatile asset. So that “up only” trajectory is going to be punctuated by sharp downdrafts. You have to be prepared for that, and you have to see those downdrafts as a buying opportunity.

I want to own the Swiss franc because it’s the best-managed currency and has been a safe-haven asset since World War I. The dollar is going to be the center of the crisis to come. Countries/central banks all over the world are moving away from the dollar and into gold because they’re losing faith in American politics and America’s financial situation.

The franc is a standout for safety.

After the crises to come, however, I see a bright dawn for America in the 2030s…

Crisis always leads to rebirth, and America will be reborn.

But as I noted, I don’t know that a reborn America will at all resemble the America we know today.

I suspect the uniquely American form of Ouroboros Capitalism (in which the beast eats itself) is not long for this world.

Boomers, who extracted the most from the current brand of capitalism, are dying off, and the two largest generations in the world today—gen Z and gen alpha—are none too pleased by the world that exists. They’re coming into political power and they’re going to fundamentally change the system. You can read a much longer take on that in this two-part dispatch I wrote back in July, here and here.

In short, America is progressing toward a much brighter—albeit very different—future in the 2030s.

Alas, the road to the palace is lined with mines and thieves and politicians who only care about growing their net worth at the expense of yours.

We’re going to have to survive the crisis. Not all will.

But owning bitcoin, gold, and Swiss francs—the “El Jefe Safety Trio”—will help set you up nicely.