Weekly Digest: JPMorgan Makes a Big Crypto Prediction

Plus, Why It Pays to Listen to Ronan McMahon

Welcome to your Sunday digest…my breakdown of the things we’re thinking about and talking about in the Global Intelligence world.

Today’s collection of stories all revolve around a common theme—you heard it here first.

This week, I came across three news stories on big economic projections or trends. What’s interesting is that we actually forecast them here weeks or even months ago.

I point this out not to toot my own horn (OK, maybe one small toot)…

Rather, I think it clearly highlights a key point we all need to keep front of mind: The big banks, investment firms, and mainstream media are not on the side of regular people like you and me.

See, I don’t have a crystal ball. I cannot see the future. But I can analyze the data and determine, sometimes with a high degree of confidence, where the economy is headed.

The big banks have teams of smart people doing exactly the same thing…so they probably came to the same conclusions that I did long before they released these projections over the past week.

But they don’t share that kind of information with regular customers. That information they keep private as long as they can…so they can make as much money as possible for themselves and their high-end clients.

Only when the patterns are becoming clear to everyone do they tell their ordinary customers and the public.

Because let’s face it… Main Street investors like you or me simply don’t matter to the big banks and investment firms. Unless you can cut them a check with six or seven zeros on it, you’re nobody to them.

The point being, I wrote about these events first not because I’m clairvoyant. I just told you earlier because I’m on your side.

So, with that…on to the projections.

First up, JPMorgan calls the bottom in the recent crypto downturn.

On Monday this week in a letter to clients, JPMorgan wrote that the crypto sector has “found the floor.” 

In the letter, the bank said that bitcoin and Ethereum gaining 36% and 102% since the June lows is another indicator the market has hit a bottom.

One key factor it highlighted in this rebound is the upcoming upgrades to the Ethereum network, known as the Ethereum 2.0 project.

Ethereum is poised to go through a major upgrade, scheduled for September, that could increase the speed of its network from 15 to 17 transactions per second to as many as 100,000 transactions per second. This speed increase of more than 600,000% could unleash a wave of crypto innovation, and has led to renewed interest in crypto among insiders and institutional investors.

Back in July, I suggested that crypto’s surge immediately after the Fed’s latest rate hike was very likely an indication that crypto had bottomed. As for the Ethereum upgrade, I’ve been going on about the significance of that for well over a year.

***

The next stop on the I-told-you-so express comes via this headline from Insider:“Americans are looking to Italy, France, Greece, and Portugal for more affordable homes and better lives.”

According to a market report from Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices, demand from international homebuyers has increased across Europe this year.

This means, of course, that buyers who got in first in attractive destinations across Europe are now reaping major financial gains, either in the form of rental yields or home appreciation.

Which is a scenario we’ve been predicting for some time.

To be fair, this projection has come to you in Field Notes courtesy of my friendand the founder of Real Estate Trend Alert, Ronan McMahon.

We often feature Ronan here due to his expert knowledge of international real estate markets…and well, he called this one, big time.

The good news for us, as investors, is that we’re still early to this trend. In this new age of remote work, value properties in attractive destinations overseas are going to be a good investment for many years to come.

That’s part of the reason I’m now hunting for my own beachfront property in Europe.

***

Finally this week is a new prediction from acclaimed economist Robert Shiller.

Shiller is one of the guys who predicted the 2008 housing crash. He wrote a paper when he was a Yale professor way back in 2004 prophetically called, Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market? He then fully forecast the crash in 2007, before everything went belly up.

Now, Shiller has a new prediction about a housing downturn in the U.S.

Speaking to Yahoo Finance last Sunday, he said:

“Existing home sales have gone down. Permits are down. So there are a lot of signs that we’ll see something. And it may not be catastrophic, but I think it’s time to consider [a recession] … I think that the risks are heightened right now for buying a house.”

This is something I wrote many months back—that we had hit and then passed the peak of the U.S. housing market, and that the sector in America would see hard times. And now here we are.

All of which brings me back around to my original comment. I’m by no means claiming to be right 100% of the time. But our goal with Field Notes is always to bring you analysis first that becomes the news later. We try to put you ahead of the curve.

That brings us to the end of this week’s digest. Many thanks for being a subscriber. And if you have any feedback or questions, reach out through the contact form on the Global Intelligence website. Enjoy the rest of your Sunday.