Welcome to your weekly digest…my breakdown of the things we’re thinking about and talking about in the Global Intelligence world.
First up this week, is this the end of Google?
The internet age is divided into two eras—B.G. and A.G.
In the world Before Google, the internet was an interesting tool, but it was so difficult to search that it had limited impact on traditional businesses.
After Google, everything changed. The internet became the defining technology of our age, transforming virtually every aspect of society. And Google became arguably the most powerful private organization on the planet.
Today, the company accounts for between 86% and 96% of internet searches in most major Western economies. (Home-grown search engines dominate in Russia and China.)
But now, for the first time in 15 years, there is a potential challenge to Google’s supremacy.
I’ve written before about the new artificial intelligence technology ChatGPT.
This AI chatbot can generate lengthy responses to many types of questions. Give it a simple prompt and it can write computer code, draft legal documents, create poetry, concoct college essays, and so much more. And it can also generate answers to questions.
For instance, instead of going to Google to find a recipe for guacamole and scrolling through two or three websites to find a result you like, you could simply ask ChatGPT to generate a popular recipe for guacamole.
Just recently, I was on a podcast to talk about a certain topic on citizenship. I first went to Google to do some research, but the answers all centered on the wrong topic and were tangential to my search terms. So, I turned to ChatGPT and it spit out a cogent, on-point, solid answer for me.
This type of generative AI tech could be a game-changer…and Google knows it. The company’s management have reportedly declared a “code red” situation over the potential challenges ChatGPT and related AI tech pose for its search business.
Of course, Google still has time to address this. ChatGPT is in its infancy and is guilty of sometimes providing inaccurate answers.
But we are approaching the AI age. And there’s no question that will Google will have to evolve to meet this new challenge.
Indeed, Paul Buchheit, one of the creators of Gmail, tweeted last year that: “Google may be only a year or two away from total disruption. AI will eliminate the Search Engine Result Page, which is where they make most of their money.”
***
Next up…why the rich are pulling their money from banks.
Over the past year or so, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 0.25% all the way up to 4.25% to 4.5%…not that you’d notice if you were looking at the rate you’re getting on your savings.
Despite the Fed’s rapid rate hikes, big banks are still paying out tiny interest rates on checking and savings accounts, with the typical savings account offering just 0.33%.
Now, the rich are done waiting.
Deposits at Bank of America’s wealth unit dropped 17% in 2022 to $324 billion. JPMorgan also saw deposits in its wealth and asset management business fall 17%, while Wells Fargo’s wealth-management deposits fell 28% to $139 billion.
The banks’ wealthy customers decided to move their money into money-market funds and Treasuries, which are offering higher rates.
For the moment, deposits in customer accounts are largely unaffected.
Deposits at Bank of America’s consumer units were down only 0.6%. At JPMorgan, the figure dropped 1%, while at Wells Fargo, these accounts were down 3%.
My advice: Do what the rich are doing.
If you have a substantial sum earning less than 1% interest in a checking or savings, and you don’t require access to it in the short term, move it into Treasuries or a certificate of deposit. If you shop around, you’ll find that some banks are now offering 4% to 4.5% on one-year CDs.
***
Finally, shares are moving to the blockchain.
This week, Swiss bank Cite Gestion became the first private bank to “tokenize” its shares.
Tokenization is when you convert something into a crypto token so that it can be stored on a blockchain network. Blockchain is the ultra-secure digital ledger technology behind bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies.
The shares will operate as non-fungible tokens, or NFTs. These tokens are different than cryptocurrencies like bitcoin since every token is different from every other. NFTs are used for the tokenization of stocks since individual shares are unique.
Moving assets to the blockchain is going to be one of the major financial trends of this decade. And it’s already starting to gain traction.
Pennsylvania-based wealth management firm Hamilton Lane said it’s going to tokenize three of its investment funds. And investment giant KKR also announced that it’s planning to tokenize its Health Care Strategic Growth Fund.
My prediction: Well before 2030 arrives, all Wall Street stocks will be traded as NFTs, which is why Fidelity and other big brokerages are moving to operate NFT marketplaces and aiming to go big into crypto.
Before long, we’ll all be trading NFT stocks in a Fidelity branch in the metaverse that’s equipped with an interactive AI chatbot.
That brings us to the end of this week’s digest. Many thanks for being a subscriber. And if you have any feedback or questions, reach out through the contact form on the Global Intelligence website.
Enjoy the rest of your Sunday.
Not signed up to Jeff’s Field Notes?
Sign up for FREE by entering your email in the box below and you’ll get his latest insights and analysis delivered direct to your inbox every day (you can unsubscribe at any time). Plus, when you sign up now, you’ll receive a FREE report and bonus video on how to get a second passport. Simply enter your email below to get started.