This Letter Is Gonna Get Bloody…

If you’re squeamish, turn away now—today’s dispatch is gonna get bloody.

I’m seeing lots of glad-handing and back-slapping and high-fiving across various corners of the media and across various social media outlets—self-assured assertions crowing about the supposed strength of the US economy. A lot of, “See! We told you so! Tariffs are not bad… the US economy is smokin’ hot… jobs are booming… inflation is dead!”

And I think to myself: “Must be what Napolean felt after his 1812 invasion of Russia.”

The Frenchman’s Grande Armée entered Moscow in mid-September, certain of victory as Russian forces retreated. The French army, expecting a triumphant entry into the cultural heart of Russia, found Moscow largely deserted and on fire. Supplies necessary to feed the French troops were scarce, and Russian winter was approaching. Napoleon retreated, suffering massive losses along the way, bringing about his ultimate downfall.

That’s where we are right now: Premature celebration.

The future grows darker from here.

I will foreshadow what’s to come: A plea for you to load up on as much gold as you can afford.

But first some headlines… and this is where today’s dispatch turns bloody:

Americans are losing spending power, say researchers: Most can no longer afford a ‘minimal quality of life’ – CNBC

The Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity recently released its Minimal Quality of Life Index, which tracks the “true cost of economic well-being,” and it found that, “the bottom 60% of households by income fell well short of the threshold for a minimal quality of life.”

My point: The bedrock of the American economy—the US consumer—is in dire straits, supported at this point almost singularly by reliance on credit cards and other forms of consumer debt.

Emergence Of Warning Signs In The Global Financial System – Eurasia Review

This piece, from a China-based think tank, notes that a number of banks globally are either struggling financially, or are sharply increasing their loan-loss reserve in preparation for an impending economic crisis.

The research noted that JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is warning that, because of excessive governmental spending and the Fed’s quantitative easing, the US bond market is “bound to crack” under the mounting pressure of rising debt.

It noted as well that Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser has outlined a three-phase impact from Trump’s tariff policies that will upend the US economy.

Phase 1: Consumers and businesses rush to buy stuff before tariffs cause price rises (what we saw over the spring).

Phase 2: Heightened uncertainty that causes businesses to pause investment and hiring (where we are right now).

Phase 3: Adverse effects on consumers and businesses as tariff impacts—disrupted supply chains, shortage, and inflation—grow more pronounced (that’s coming later this summer and into the fall).

My point: What I noted earlier about Napoleon—the idea that the tariffs aren’t, won’t, and don’t impact the economy is just plain dumb. Bad juju is coming.

U.S. budget deficit hit $316 billion in May, with annual shortfall up 14% from a year ago – CNBC

Despite Trump, the self-proclaimed King of Debt, touting his ability over the years to wipe out America’s debt, the opposite is true. He, like almost all the presidents over the last half-century or so, has continually racked up ever-more debt.

America is now on pace to spend $1.2 trillion on debt-repayment costs for fiscal year 2025, which ends in September. That’s more than 16% of the federal budget for the year—a huge number in peacetime.

More important, that huge number—and widespread worries that there’s no reversal in sight—is why foreign investors have been fleeing the dollar, and why bond-rating agency Moody’s recently downgraded US debt, which raises America’s borrowing costs even more.

My point: Debt is going to be the death of America because there are no stated plans to radically reduce the debt. Indeed, Trump’s budget reconciliation bill, the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” promises to increase America’s debt by as much as $5 trillion, or about 14% of the current $37 trillion mountain of debt.

Dollar divorce? Asia’s shift away from the U.S. dollar is picking up pace – CNBC

ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, recently released its Economic Community Strategic Plan for 2026 to 2030. The plan aims mainly to reduce shocks associated with exchange-rate fluctuations. To do so, ASEAN will move away from reliance on the US dollar in regional trade, and will promote local currency settlements.

Bad news for the buck, which is already seeing the world reduce use of the dollar in global trade, and reduce the amount of dollars held in central bank reserves.

My point: Falling demand for the dollar begets a dollar that is weakening against other currencies… begetting higher inflation on the home front, since the US must import a variety of raw and finished products. It also means Uncle Sam has to pay higher and higher interest rates on his debt to entice buyers of his debt… which, going back to the last headline, means higher and higher debt-repayment costs.

Grim World Bank update warns Trump ushers in worst growth in 60 years – Rawstory.com

Trump’s tariff agenda, the World Bank noted in research published earlier this month, is creating global trade tension that is “setting the stage for the weakest decade of growth since the 1960s.”

World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill warned that, “Without a swift course correction, the harm to living standards could be deep.” That includes harm to living standards in America, which the World Bank projects will face the biggest downgrade in economic growth.

My point: The world is on the cusp of an economic deceleration that could spin into something far worse. American households are directly in the path of this storm.

Enough headlines…

Now the plea…

Every one of those headlines—and frankly, I had a handful more, including the fact that US unemployment is inching toward a dangerous tipping point—tells part of the story of why gold has hit a record high nearly 20 times in the last year alone.

Global gold investors have been front-running all those headlines all along the way. They see all these problems long before the problems show up in the media.

We here at Field Notes also see all of these problems before they show up in the media, which is why we, too, have been front-running all of this for years now.

But I know from emails and conversations I have at International Living conferences that a lot of people still haven’t bought gold. They understand the story, they’ve just not acted.

I’m urging you to act. In fact, I’m hosting a special FREE gold workshop TOMORROW—click here to sign up. (Today is your last chance to do so.)

There is not a single shred of evidence anywhere in the world today that says this situation will improve.

Debts are deepening globally.

Faith in the US dollar is waning globally.

US debt is expanding, meaning Uncle Sam’s interest costs are exploding higher.

Fewer buyers are showing up to US Treasury auctions, which means higher interest rates and even higher debt repayment costs.

US economic policy is a fiscal disaster waiting to happen, and we’re likely to see the real impacts of that begin to emerge later this year.

And all along the way, gold will march higher and higher.

And higher.

You still have time to act.

I urge you to act… before the real bloodshed happens.