The Vital Factors for Global Migration and Asset Diversification in 2024

2023 has been an eventful year for global migration and international asset diversification. 

Back in February, two of Europe’s most popular golden visa programs—in Ireland and Portugal—announced major changes. The Irish government abruptly closed its program, and Portugal announced its intention to close the immensely popular residential investment route to long-term residency there. 

A few months later, Greece raised the threshold investment for residential property qualification for its own golden visa in select areas of the country. 

In October, an investigative consortium released a critical report on abuses of Dominica’s citizenship by investment program (CIB). Close on its heels came a recommendation from the European Parliament to remove visa-free access to the European Union for any country that sells citizenship. A similar bill has been introduced in the U.S. Congress. 

Then, in November, the Portuguese government announced the end of its non-habitual resident (NHR) tax scheme, which grants major concessions to foreign visa holders. 

On the other hand, several countries announced improvements to their visa programs. Malaysia launched a digital nomad visa and revamped its residential property visa, lowering the investments needed. Indonesia also announced a new digital nomad program. 

That’s a lot of movement in a short time. The question now is… what’s 2024 likely to hold—particularly given that it’s a U.S. election year? Here are some predictions. 

• The European Union will continue to ratchet up pressure on Malta, the only country in the bloc still selling citizenship. Although the EU doesn’t care much for golden visas either, it is deeply hostile to the idea of anyone without meaningful personal ties buying citizenship of an EU nation. Anyone interested in getting citizenship in Malta should move as quickly as possible. 
• On the other hand, the EU will not impose a blanket ban on visa-free travel from all countries that sell citizenship. A deeply researched book by a British professor claims the U.S. prefers to tolerate citizenship by investment programs because of the intelligence opportunities they generate. At least under the current administration, it’s likely that the U.S. will encourage Europe to do the same. 
• Minimum investments for golden visas in Europe will remain stable next year. Recent changes in European programs reflect concern over their impact on housing availability and prices. I expect most governments to take a breather next year to see how things go under the new systems. 
• The composition of visa applicants and recipients will change compared to the past. Russians, some of the biggest consumers of mobility-by-investment, have already been excluded from most programs. The Chinese government is also cracking down on its citizens who move capital out of the country. That will create more space for applicants from other countries, particularly the U.S. and Canada. 
• The pace of emigration from the U.S. will quicken dramatically. The number of Americans seeking residency or citizenship elsewhere is already skyrocketing, but the looming presidential election, and whether they agree with the views of a candidate who’s likely to win, will impel many people to act sooner than later. 
• U.S. stock market returns will plateau early in the year; returns elsewhere will become increasingly attractive. Except for the biggest companies, the impact of rising interest rates will hit U.S. corporate earnings hard. U.S. investors will increasingly become cash strapped, and unable to provide enough liquidity to keep the market going. But stock markets elsewhere—particularly Southeast Asia, which is benefiting from the reorientation of supply chains away from China—will provide ample opportunities. 
• The gold price will break through important resistance levels and rise to new heights. With stock market returns under pressure, persistent inflation,and the likelihood of a second Trump presidency, investors will flee to the yellow metal for protection. 
• A Trump victory in November could have unpredictable impacts on Americans’ ability to migrate and invest abroad. Given his stated intentions to adopt a raft of radical authoritarian and protectionist policies, some countries may feel compelled to impose restrictions on U.S. persons. 

• The conflict in Ukraine will worsen as U.S. and European politics make it more difficult to generate support for Kyiv. Ripples of instability will wash over Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and other places dependent on food and energy exports from the belligerent countries. 
• Partly as a consequence of this, interest in offshore asset protection trusts, limited liability companies, and other legal structures will soar. Americans with assets to protect will be thinking about creating safe havens abroad in anticipation of a Trump victory, as well as increasing global instability. 

All in all, a mixed bag… with the most important variable being the outcome of the U.S. election in November. 

This time next year, I’ll revisit these predictions to see how I did…