The Migration Mirror: When the West Moves East and the Poor Move North

By training and temperament, I tend to be a big picture kind of guy. Lately I’ve been seeing an interesting picture of global migration… one anyone contemplating a move abroad needs to look at as well:

1. The middle classes of the advanced democracies—especially those in their prime years—are struggling economically and “spiritually.” They face rising living costs and declining opportunities. They’re freaked out by intense political and cultural divisions at home. They’ve lost faith in the institutions they inherited from their forebears. So, they’re looking for opportunities to live abroad, especially where they can enjoy a high quality of life at low cost and relative political peace.
2. The governments of the countries these migrants like welcome them because they bring foreign spending power and pay taxes. That increases economic activity, creates jobs, and gives the government more money to invest in their citizens.
3. The people living in these places—Mexico City, Athens, Barcelona, Cape Town, and others—are feeling overwhelmed by these new arrivals. Part of it is the change in character of their cherished neighborhoods, from corner bodegas to latte-serving street cafes. More prosaically, they’re being priced out of those neighborhoods by foreigners spending hard currencies who can afford far more than they can.

In isolation, all of this makes sense. It’s logical. But what does it say about the state of our world?

Immigration is one of the biggest points of conflict in the developed world. Developed countries like the US, Canada, the European Union, and Australia are experiencing populist backlash against immigration. The resulting political and culture clash is helping to drive many middle-class people abroad.

Paradoxically, many of them are moving to the countries generating unskilled immigrants to their own native lands. For example, the New York Times recently reported on protests in Mexico City against digital nomads who’ve made entire neighborhoods unaffordable. But migrants from Mexico are the biggest target of the Trump administration’s crackdown… a reason American digital nomads move to Mexico.

Gulf countries are hugely popular amongst “power expats.” But their societies are unique. Their native citizens don’t do any work thanks to oil riches and the taxes paid by multinationals who headquarter there. Immigrants from South and East Asia do the manual labor. The result is bizarre hybrid societies where the government rules on behalf of the native born, the economy is dominated by foreign expats with no political rights, and all the physical work is done by low skilled laborers who have no rights at all.

Imagine global society as a slowly circulating current. The same forces that encourage middle-class digital nomads to look elsewhere push unskilled migrants towards their developing world homes. On both sides the resulting migration causes tension and conflict, which deepens the problem.

The conventional linkage between nation states and their economies is breaking down. Digital nomads earn their livings from those countries’ economies but increasingly they live and spend their money in poorer nations. Citizens of receiving countries emigrate, trying to integrate themselves in the home countries of the nomads. Many employers in those countries are keen to have them because their labor is so cheap.

Global governments respond to this in different ways. Rich country governments try to prevent the flow of unskilled migrants, resorting to measures that offend modern sensitivities and degrade the globalist gains of the last few decades, such as borderless travel in the European Union. Middle-income countries who receive the resulting digital nomads are keen to encourage them for economic reasons but face increasing political backlash from their own voters when they do.

They both face a similar question: On whose behalf are they governing? Are their “constituents” their citizens and voters, or the migrants who benefit their economies and labor-hungry industries? Is it sustainable and just to allow well-heeled migrants to overwhelm foreign cities in the hope that eventually the rising tide will lift local boats? How do developed country governments simultaneously meet the demand for cheap foreign labor from business whilst simultaneously appearing to crack down on unskilled immigration—without making their countries politically less attractive to the young and skilled?

If I were a citizen of a place like the United States or Canada looking for a new life abroad, I’d want to know as much as I can about this dynamic. It would help me to choose a place to live and assess the risks and opportunities inherent in my choice. It would help to make my new life abroad a conscious effort, and limit nasty surprises.

Fortunately there’s a place you can go to get just that kind of insight. You can consult with me.