The Jeff Who Cried “Wolf!”

Writers always point to the wrong conclusion when recounting the story of The Boy Who Cried Wolf.

They always conclude with some moral lesson about not lying.

Absolute malarkey!

I mean, come on. Do you not see the end result? The wolf was real. He killed all the sheep. The kid was right!

The real conclusion: People aren’t always smart enough to connect the dots, don’t want to believe what they can’t see, and too often buy into a media narrative that’s biased in shaping the “facts.”

My bet: The kid saw the wolf, day after day, prowling the perimeter of fields, checking for the best attack point. And the kid was smart: He put two and two together, he connected the obvious dots, and he reported it. But the wolf was smart, too. He didn’t attack immediately. He bided his time, lulling the village dullards into a false sense of security and ensuring they viewed the kid as an unrepentant liar.

And we all know how it ended.

Moving on…

Construction companies and agricultural companies have begun reporting that workers are not showing up to their jobs in California, Illinois, Florida, and elsewhere.

Construction projects for new homes and apartments suddenly sit idle. Oranges and grapes and whatnot are now going unpicked.

These workers, you might have surmised, are undocumented immigrants who are freaked out about Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents beginning to act on President Trump’s deportation policy.

Immigrants are already being deported. ICE agents are rounding up undocumented workers, and other immigrants see this and hear about it and instead of risking it, they’re simply staying away from construction sites, ag fields, and the day-laborer pick-up spots where they routinely hang out looking for work.

Seems like there was a writer in your life warning that this wolf was on the prowl…

Doesn’t matter your politics or whether you think Trump is right or wrong with this policy, because the only fact that ultimately matters is the impact on the economy and American pocketbooks.

Workers go away, prices go up.

Very simple math.

I have seen so many comments on various social media platforms claiming that this is great news because now Americans can take back all these jobs that illegal immigrants have “stolen.”

Hahahaahhaahahahahaha!

Immigrants have those jobs because Americans do not want those jobs!

If Americans wanted those jobs, immigrants wouldn’t have them. The jobs would not be available. Again, simple math.

All one need do is listen to construction company owners and farm owners and restaurant owners, all of whom repeat time and time again something to the effect that “I haven’t seen an American apply for any of these jobs in years.”

Now I’m not saying Americans are lazy. I’m saying this is how society works: Societies progress to a point where people no longer want to work in back-breaking, low-wage jobs. But those jobs are necessary in every economy. People have to build houses. People have to pick crops. People have to clean restaurants and hospitals. And it’s immigrants who chase those jobs at this point in society’s progression because the natives won’t.

The natives don’t need those jobs because of social safety nets. The calculus is thus: “I can work in the hot sun, stooped over all day picking asparagus… or I can remain unemployed and receive unemployment benefits that are pretty similar. Hmmmm — decisions decisions…”

This isn’t just an American issue.

It’s the same here in Portugal, where I live. Brazilians and Africans from the old Portuguese colonies—along with recent immigrants from India, Pakistan, and Nepal—are the ones working in restaurants and employed as hospital cleaning staff because the Portuguese largely do not want those jobs.

Over in Singapore, there are growing concerns about the potential death of the country’s famous hawker stall culture (think: street food, but the best street food in the world). Running a stall is back-breaking labor for relatively little pay, and Singaporeans are increasingly shunning that work.

Back home, the implications seem plainly obvious: constant and/or growing demand for houses and food running up against decreasing supply. That’s inflationary math.

I’m not telling you this to bag on Trump.

I’m telling you this because if this gets out of hand, inflation is going to surge again. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again. The cost of groceries and financing for cars and homes will put more pressure on wallets already strained across middle-class America. And the stock and crypto markets will plunge, while bond yields surge (that will cause Uncle Sam’s debt-servicing costs to rise—a cost that already consumes 15% of the Federal budget, the largest line item outside of Social Security.)

I understand the issues with illegal immigration. I understand the frustration people voice.

But the deportation policy is already showing early signs that the wolf I’ve been warning about is on the prowl.

Maybe it doesn’t worsen from here. Maybe Trump and his team announce that they’re only focused on criminal elements and that they’re not going to raid farms and construction sites and elsewhere where undocumented workers are prevalent and crucial to the economy.

If so, no big economic dent.

If not—if raids and deportations ramp up—well, all I can say is, “Wolf!”