I’m gonna label this dispatch, “Ode to Crisis Fatigue.”
Or phrased another way: There’s opportunity in them thar spills.
You have no doubt noticed that the financial markets are in a bit of a snit these days.
The ebullient spirit that wafted across the fruited plains in the aftermath of Donnie’s re-election to the White House last November has now morphed into a nightmare as investors finally realize the implications of Trump’s purposeful destruction of the US economy…
And look, I’m not going off on Trump here. The markets speak for themselves far louder than I ever could.
Though I will note that I warned months ago that tariffs were destined to lead us to crisis and, well, Welcome to Crisis! Enjoy your stay!
I’ve also been saying more recently that tariffs were never the real goal. They are just the path DJT has chosen to lead America (and the world) to an economic turning point so that he can A) force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, and B) blame the coming crisis on The Last Guy and, by way of lower interest rates that will turn the frowns upside down, claim he (Trump) is a savior for having pulled America out of a crisis.
Clearly, the financial markets are… displeased.
Stocks, as registered by the S&P 500, were down nearly 10% in just a week. Bitcoin, which is far faster at predicting “what next?” is down about 25% from the record highs it reached in late January.
Bond jockeys are telegraphing a “Trumpession” as bond prices fall and bond yields rise (that’s bond investors demanding more return for the greater risk they see racing toward America like a drunk on a moped trying to navigate a pothole-strewn street at 2x the speed limit).
The dollar, meanwhile, which had been resurgent in the weeks after Trump’s re-election, has now fallen 6% against a basket of major global currencies and is below its level on the day DJ won the vote. That’s the world’s currency traders saying there’s only one road for the Federal Reserve to follow at this point and that’s The Freeway to Lower Rates—aka, “You guys in the Eccles Building have no choice now but to appease that dude in the White House and start cutting rates.”
For the record, I have begun tweeting/writing that I foresee:
- A crummy March jobs report (reported in early April) because of the illogical quantity of random layoffs at the hands of the Department of Government Efficiency. Those reports will remain hideous into the summer.
- Ramping concerns/worries among consumers and businesses that will lead to plunging sentiment about the economy.
- Dampening consumer spending because government layoffs will lead to even more private-sector layoffs (among the many segments of the private sector that depend on government contracts and workers).
- All of which will lead the Fed to cut rates, possibly in May and almost assuredly in June.
And all of that finally brings us to what I really want to share with you today: The opportunity that now exists in this manufactured crisis.
Right now—this very moment—is the exact moment you want to wade into the financial markets, and specifically into bitcoin.
Nothing germane has happened to bitcoin or the unflappable story arc of crypto and the future it is bringing to the world. Same can be said of the stock market, too.
No exogenous event has emerged that would destroy trillions of wealth in a metaphorical blink of an eye.
What the financial markets are suffering through is, quite literally, the direct result of one person.
Me writing that might anger some people. But the truth is what the truth is. And the truth is that up until the point that tariffs arrived, nothing in the economy warned of “Bridge Out Ahead.”
Everything changed on Monday, March 3, when Trump announced sweeping and illogical tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Prior to that official announcement, the global financial markets were hoping wiser heads would prevail.
When those wiser heads remained hidden, the global markets realized that there really are no adults inside Romper Room, so they plunged in fear of what’s to come.
And they haven’t stopped falling since.
Investors are angry, worried, panicked, rage-filled, and distraught that the leader of the free world would purposefully wipe out so much wealth.
But the thing is, this is going to end… and end well for those who pay attention.
Sure, lots of families are going to feel the pain of this moment in American history.
All of that, however, will 100% lead the Fed to cut interest rates and pump oodles and oodles of cash into the economy to save what remains.
Lower rates, increasing money supply, and fiscal stimulus are The Wedding March for financial markets—everyone stands to take notice of the bride’s entrance.
And while it’s more than a wee bit gauche to prattle on about profits when so many Americans will be suffering, the world gets on with getting on, regardless of the wealth destruction or wealth creation happening in the background.
Which is why all of this is great for bitcoin.
The grandaddy of crypto thrives when the Fed is in rate-cut/stimulus mode.
Again, that’s just the way it is.
Which is why I say now is such an opportune moment to buy bitcoin and just sit on it through all the ups and downs. We might be early—BTC as I write this is about $82,500, and I can see it potentially slipping into the high-$60k to mid-$70k range before resuming an upward trajectory that will send it past seven-figure territory before the end of the decade.
Big price swings are not unusual for bitcoin. Last year it stormed from around $40,000 to a new all-time high near $70,000… before marching higher again to within touching distance of six figures…
It’s retreated again recently—but as I say, price swings are par for the course with bitcoin and over time it has continued its relentless march to higher and higher highs…
Which all means—again—NOW is the moment to buy.
The upward trajectory is written into the stars. And where bitcoin goes… so goes the rest of the crypto market.
There are simply too many tailwinds pushing bitcoin and the cryptoconomy higher once we get past this particularly noxious moment.
And some of the biggest of those tailwinds are Trump and the pro-crypto people he has put in charge of reshaping America into what he sees as “the bitcoin capital of the world” and “the crypto capital of the planet.”
The reason I say buy now instead of waiting for lower prices is because I truly have no idea if my lower price expectation is legitimate. Bitcoin is a global asset and the rest of the world could decide tomorrow, “You know what—we gotta own bitcoin because of what’s about to happen in America!”
Or, the Federal Reserve could see the graffiti on the White House wall and pre-emptively decide to cut interest rates to ward off the recession that’s clearly coming. And an emergency rate cut/stimulus plan would very likely see bitcoin rally hard.
So, I want to be in before the fun begins, knowing full well that I have to sit on my hands and accept the roller-coaster ride that’s possible.
That’s exactly why I’m hosting my Crypto Profits Workshop this week… It’s completely FREE for Field Notes readers—click here for more details.
The bottom line is this: In crypto as in stocks, money is made when you buy low and sell higher.
THIS is the moment to buy—because “higher” is coming, maybe sooner than you think.
I’ll explain much more in my FREE Crypto Profits Workshop. Click here for full details.
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