My Election Day Message

Well, here we are—the most consequential US election day in the last 100 years. Figured I should probably weigh in.

Let me say immediately that this is not political commentary. This is just my assessment of what’s likely to happen and how that will ripple through society and financial markets.

This is part of a conversation I had with my son on my visit to Louisiana last week so that I might prep him for today’s events relative to the crypto market, where he is an active trader and which will feel the result of today’s vote.

So… here’s my take on how this day goes, and what happens starting tomorrow.

At some point later today, Donald Trump will be leading in the vote count and probably the Electoral College count. So, he will prematurely declare victory and say something to the effect that it’s clear the voters have voiced their preference for him, and that if the results change from that point onward then it’s clearly fraud. He might even tell his supporters to get out there and protect voting booths to ensure that fraud doesn’t occur.

At some point after that, the major news networks will declare Kamala Harris America’s first female president. (As I said, this is not political. Just my take on what’s probable, based on all I’ve seen, heard, and read.)

All hell breaks loose.

Trump will immediately declare Harris’s victory is the result of fraud and election tampering by Democrats.

Social media will overflow with reports of voting irregularities…

Lawsuits will immediately start landing with a thud in battleground states. Those lawsuits are already lined up, they’ve been lined up for weeks. Courts and judges are expecting them. Republicans and Democrats are expecting them.

The real machinations start tomorrow.

Republican members of Congress will gather to plot strategy for potentially blocking a Harris inauguration. State election officials and members of certain state legislatures will begin plotting their own attack on the vote, looking for ways to decertify whatever they can decertify.

The aim is to sow enough uncertainty that lawmakers and courts can legitimately rationalize tossing out local ballots.

And it’s going to create discord in society and on Wall Street.

Violence?

Tough call. Maybe? If so, sporadic.

But financial markets, I’m betting, will be in a tizzy. Wall Street abhors uncertainty, and presidential uncertainty in America is the pinnacle.

Stocks fall.

Crypto falls.

Bond prices and the dollar probably rise because of the fear trade.

Gold… probably falls a bit too… a kneejerk reaction to people racing out of assets and into the perceived safety of the US dollar and US Treasury paper.

That will be a short-term situation. As rationality returns, investors will be buying gold, sending it to a new record high, probably up near or above $2,800 per ounce.

Wall Street and crypto will be dyspeptic for a while because no one will know how all of this will ultimately shake out.

There’s a path by which Trump could lose, yet the machinations his political machine unleashes could see him take office because of a one-state/one-vote situation in a Congress that leans Red.

If that happens, then all the hell that broke loose post-election will look like nothing more than a drunken prom. Society will be in turmoil as fans of both parties go at one another.

Violence? Much more likely…

And if that happens…

Hasta la vista to stock prices and crypto. Both will tank. To cover my butt, I will say that there is a chance bitcoin also surges on fears that an America at odds with itself is very bad news for the dollar (very true).

I can’t put odds on that because there are so many moving parts.

Or… there’s the bright side.

A clear victor emerges tonight, or tomorrow, or over the next few days.

Everyone accepts the results. No one files a litany of lawsuits. Life goes on as normal.

In that world, stocks meander as Wall Street calculates the real economic impacts of a Trump or Harris administration.

Crypto likely rallies, content that a succession fight won’t happen. Both candidates tend to be pro-crypto, and so bitcoin, Solana, Ethereum, et al. ride higher, with bitcoin setting a new all-time high on its way past $100,000.

Clearly, I’m hoping for the bright side…

But I worry that I’m hoping in vain.

What I will say is this: Don’t panic. Don’t sell into the emotion of the moment. Great buying opportunities are going to emerge.

More on that soon…

And, oh: Happy Election Day!