I Hope I’m Wrong

“A nation must share a commonality among its people—a common language, a common set of core beliefs and values. But America today is well along the road toward a social schism that’s giving rise to… a Balkanized country.”

I put today’s lead paragraph in quotes because, well, I’m quoting myself—the words of a younger El Jefe, from the fall of 2011.

Back then, I was living in south Louisiana, where I grew up, after having spent the first couple of decades of my career living in Dallas, Seattle, and metro New York City. I’d lived alternatingly in Red or Blue country for forty-plus years, and I’d seen and experienced firsthand through colleagues, friends, and family the myriad ways that America was cleaving itself apart along social, political, religious, and financial faultlines.

A dozen years before former Georgia Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene famously called for a “national divorce” in 2023, I’d verbalized why that divorce was likely on the way.

At the time, people thought I’d fallen and hit my head. No way America ever divides itself! Don’t be such a fool! We have too much in common: college football, fireworks on the fourth, turkey in November and… well… probably some other stuff, too.

Today, Young El Jefe looks to have been wise beyond his years.

Per a recent Pew Research Center poll:

A survey of 25 countries by the Washington, D.C.-based Pew Research Center has found that Americans are most likely to rate others living in their country as morally or ethically bad. In fact, it was the only country where more people defined others as bad than good.

“Because we have never asked this question before, we don’t know whether a majority of Americans have long held a skeptical view of the ethics of fellow Americans, or if it’s something new – and if so, what’s driving it,” the researchers wrote in presenting their findings. “But partisan politics appear to play a role.”

“And previous research has shown that rising numbers of both Republicans and Democrats say people in the other party are immoral,” they wrote.

Let that last paragraph settle for a moment…

Rising numbers of Republicans and Democrats say people in the other party are immoral.

Disdain is no way to run a country.

Which is why I continue to believe that America’s days as a unified nation are rapidly approaching a terminal end.

To be clear, I’m not aiming for hyperbole. I’m not trying to rile up the masses. I’m not hating on America nor on either party. I’m simply looking at American society today and gauging where we go from here, because where we go says a lot about personal finance in the coming years.

And where we go seems like it leads to Splitsville. Some datapoints to consider that show the depth of national divisiveness:

• 51% of Americans say it’s more important to protect the rights of gun owners; 48% say that controlling gun ownership is more important.
• Support for Christian Nationalism—a militant view that American law should be based on Biblical principles and that Christians solely should exercise dominion over all of government, society, education, entertainment, etc.—is now at 30%.
• 70% to 80% of Republicans prioritize strict immigration enforcement, while 70% to 80% of Democrats oppose it.
• Roughly 80% of Democrats say America needs to address climate change immediately. A similar number of Republicans say it’s a hoax.
• Republicans overwhelmingly oppose government-run healthcare. Democrats overwhelmingly support it.
• Democrats in vast numbers say America must deal with systemic racism that still taints society. Republicans in vast numbers say the Democrats are wrong.

Those kinds of stats and others always lead me to the same question: How does a house so divided continue to stand united?

Red and Blue are two entirely different societies, living two entirely different realities, and pursuing two diametrically opposed agendas. Why should they be corralled into the same borders?

The world sees all of this and increasingly perceives America as an unstable country politically, socially, and financially. As I regularly note in my dispatches, that’s not me saying that. That’s the rest of the world. To wit:

• 49% of the world now views America unfavorably, with significant declines in perceptions of the US registered by Pew Research in 15 of 24 countries polled. 46% say American democracy now works poorly.
• As well, only 46% of respondents in an Ipsos poll say the US has a positive influence on the world, down sharply from 59%. That decline occurred in 26 of 29 countries polled. And for the first time ever, China is seen as having a more positive influence than the US.
• 62% of people overseas in a Pew poll rate partisan discord in America as intense, fueling perceptions of America as a divided society that, in turn, means the country is a less reliable, less stable partner.

I understand just how easy it is to brush aside the thinking of foreigners.

But foreigners shape America to a very real degree. They “Buy American,” they invest in American stock and Treasury bonds, they travel to America and spend their money on American goods and services when they’re here.

As Red/Blue discord in America increasingly defines the US, global perceptions of America weaken and foreigners begin to avoid America.

I see that here in Europe where, across the continent these days, countries are moving away from American tech products and either adopting local technology or funding startups that will provide to Europe the same products and services American companies provide.

That hits the US economy at some point.

Moreover, there are growing initiatives all over the world to build financial plumbing globally that bypasses dollar-based infrastructure. Turns out that if you bludgeon the world by using your reserve currency as a weapon, then the world looks for ways to stop using your currency.

As foreign investors and foreign central banks increasingly see America as a less-stable country and economic/political partner, they move away from the dollar and US Treasury investments. Meaning: The dollar’s value on the global stage incessantly drains away over time… which leads to higher prices on the homefront and waning influence globally for American government to help shape the world in beneficial ways.

I don’t want to be right. I don’t want to end up on the same side of history as Marjorie Taylor Greene. But if the polls are right… America really is heading for a national divorce at some point. And that’s going to change the game entirely.

More soon, unfortunately.