Change is Coming. Will You Be Ready?

At the gym today, my trainer and I fell into a conversation about randomness… as in, “Yeah, I’ve been a part of some pretty random and historical events,” I said. “It’s kinda weird, really.”

He was intrigued.

So I catalogued: on Manhattan’s West Side Highway for the 9/11 attacks at the World Trade Center; on the Destrehan Bridge just north of New Orleans as Hurricane Katrina roared through south Louisiana; nearly placed under arrest during the Rodney King riots because an LAPD trooper thought my bazooka-sized Nikon camera lens was pretty much a real bazooka; in New York with exactly $1 in my pocket for the Northeast Blackout of 2003 that left the city without power for a day.

There are others, but you get the point.

Sometimes I feel like a real-life Forrest Gump.

As I was driving back home later, I was still thinking about all these events I’ve been party to in my life, and I realized that they all represent something most of us never think about: The ways in which status quo can instantly become status novus, or the new status… the new state of affairs.

We wake up every day and we reflexively assume that today is going to be pretty much like every other day. Shower. Breakfast. Work. Lunch. Traffic. Sit-coms. Bed.

Rinse.

Repeat.

We never wake up and anticipate change. And yet, change comes at us every day. Some are big—9/11, a regional blackout that knocks entire states offline… or an arch-duke being assassinated and propelling Europe in World War 1.

Some are more narrow, more personal in scope—A spouse suddenly and surprisingly announces they want a divorce… A boss calls you into a meeting under one pretext only to relieve you of your duties without telling you why.

The point in all of this is that the human mind is generally ill-equipped to consider status novus. There are simply too many quos to consider, and too many responses to those quos—some of which are at odds with each other—for us to process.

So we keep it simple: Today is going to be just like any other day.

And yet…

Just recently, news emerged that for the first time in at least 30 years, the status quo at the world’s collection of central banks has changed.

Every morning for the last three decades, central bankers across the planet settled into their daily routine comfortable in the knowledge that US Treasury debt was the gold standard of central banking assets. The world’s safest, surest investment. A no-risk holding.

Though the bankers had all kinds of worries on their individual plates—inflation, deflation, a bad jobs report, a stock market that’s too hot—they never had to think about US Treasury bills, notes, and bonds.

Good. As. Gold.

And then comes a random morning in October 2025…

Suddenly, US Treasury debt isn’t as good as gold. Gold is good as gold.

US Treasuries are now risky because the US itself is marching toward self-immolation. The American government is a dysfunctional freakshow. Civil society in America is uncivil and devolving toward what increasing numbers of people inside and outside the US fear is a dissolution of the union. Debt will likely hit $40 trillion by the end of next year—more than 120% of GDP.

Debt servicing costs are now eating up more than 15% of the federal budget and they’ll keep growing. And the Federal Reserve, the arbiter of the economy, has no solution. Cut interests and you fuel inflation that continues to torment the country; raise rates and you cut the consumer off at the knees, you destroy an already miserable jobs market, and you increase government’s debt-repayment obligations.

Plus, you have an administration that has repeatedly said it wants a weaker dollar, and is putting in place voting members of the Federal Reserve who are (guaranteed) to undermine the independence of that long-independent agency.

I mean, would you buy corporate bonds backed by a company with those kinds of problems… run by a C-suite that is purposefully trying to devalue those bonds?

So, the world is rightly pulling back from dollars and diving into gold.

There’s a message in that for those who will listen.

I wish I could get everyone to listen.

Few do.

I feel like the radio man on the SS Mesaba—a ship you’ve likely never heard of. On the night the Titanic sank, the Mesaba’s radio room sent a critical message to the Titanic, warning of a large field of heavy pack ice lying along the Titanic’s path. The Titanic’s radio operator, Jack Philipps, disregarded the urgent message because he was busy dealing with passenger telegrams.

Gold overtaking Treasuries is the Mesaba sending a message to the world that America is sailing into a large field of heavy pack ice, and Jack Phillips (politicians writ large) are too busy doing other meaningless busywork to care.

And, so, central bankers are offloading their dollar exposure to load up on gold instead as a protective measure.

That’s what I wish everyone understood when I say “buy gold!”

I’m not saying that to help anyone make money.

Owning gold isn’t about making money.

It’s about preserving your lifestyle and surviving the iceberg ahead.