What a Friend’s Visit to a Local Store Says About America Today.
I wonder…
How close are we to the panic stage?
When you grow up, as I did, in the hurricane country of south Louisiana, you don’t panic when the weather folks tell you a ‘cane is churning through the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricanes build. They mosey and meander, taking their time. They’re not like earthquakes that just pop up randomly to surprise you like a jack-in-the-box.
They strengthen—weaken… then strengthen again. Maybe.
The cone of possibility is forever shifting. So, you learn not to overreact. You have days to prepare. To see where the ‘cane really wants to go.
No panic.
Just calm planning.
Except when there’s panic.
See, I lied a bit.
‘Canes can spur a real sense of panic at times. You’ve waited until the last minute to prepare, maybe not even seen a real reason to prepare in the first place, and you go to bed one night and wake up in the morning and realize the hurricane hit a pocket of hot Gulf waters and blew up overnight into something no one expected it to be.
And it’s now barreling toward you at an accelerated pace…
That’s when the panic sets in.
Down in south Louisiana, one of my childhood friends recently made his way over to a local gold and silver shop he has frequented for probably 30 years now. Like me, he’s a fan of collectable coins. And, like me, he knows that precious metals are the only form of hard money that still exists on the planet.
So, a couple times a month he pulls in and buys a few coins, maybe some American Silver Eagle bullion coins or whatever pieces of gold catch his fancy.
Well, late-April he pops in, then shoots me this text message: “Just got back and the place was packed… Never have I ever seen that many people in there ever!!!! Unreal.”
I don’t know if I want to call that panic just yet. But I am going to label it “panic-adjacent.”
For a couple of years now, Main Street Americans have been methodically adding bits of gold to their portfolio. I’ve noted before that Costco keeps running out of the one-ounce gold bars that it began selling a few years ago.
But the selling never seemed panicky. Just Main Streeters snapping up an ounce of gold along with an industrial-sized can of pickled jalapeños.
Now, however, something seems to have spooked Main Street.
In all the text messages my buddy has sent me over the years to show me his latest purchase, he has never used the word “unreal” to define the size of the crowd in the store. In fact, not once has he ever seen fit to mention that there was anyone else in the store.
It’s COVID-era toilet paper hoarding all over again. Only this time, people are worried about what threatens to hit the fan, rather than the toilet bowl.
See, despite the spin from DC, economic life in America is looking shaky. And Americans as a group sense that this time really is different.
I suspect that Main Streeters reflexively sense that all is not quiet on the American front.
Easy to see why.
From Moneywise.com:
While investors worry about the markets, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is raising the alarm about another economic indicator: credit-card payments.
According to the central bank, more than one in 10 Americans (11.1%) paid the bare minimum monthly on their credit-card debt in the fourth quarter of 2024.
That’s a sign of consumer distress, and it’s at a 12-year high.
Another distress signal? Credit-card accounts that are three months or more past due, which also hit a record high in the fourth quarter of 2024.
From Axios:
“Abrupt and unilateral policy changes have shaken global confidence in American economic and security leadership, and US assets are paying the price,” former U.S. Mint director Philip Diehl tells Axios, adding that fearful investors want to “sell the USA.”
Diehl, who is now president of the U.S. Money Reserve, a precious metals company, sees a “rush to gold for protection.”
Where it stands: The dollar has lost its traditional “safe-haven bid,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in a research note earlier this month…
Making matters worse are worries about tariff-induced U.S. inflation.
The big picture: For years investors had an “automatic reflex” to buy dollars and Treasuries in time of turmoil, Stephane Lintner, the CEO of Jiko, a money-markets brokerage, tells Axios. “I think we’ve lost that.”
“Investors stopped treating the dollar as a flight to safety currency and started treating it as a risk currency, a risk asset,” adds Steve Kamin, a former Federal Reserve economist now at the American Enterprise Institute.
Do all Americans understand the intricate channels through which global finance flows? None of us do, really.
But like my buddy in Louisiana who understands that a crowd inside a coin shop is “unreal,” we all recognize when the ordinary is suddenly extraordinary.
Americans right now are moving from ordinary to extraordinary.
And that’s a hair or two away from panic.
All is not normal.
And it threatens to worsen from here.
So, maybe pop into a local coin shop today? Mingle with the unreal crowd.
And buy yourself some more gold.
You can thank me later.
Not signed up to Jeff’s Field Notes?
Sign up for FREE by entering your email in the box below and you’ll get his latest insights and analysis delivered direct to your inbox every day (you can unsubscribe at any time). Plus, when you sign up now, you’ll receive a FREE report and bonus video on how to get a second passport. Simply enter your email below to get started.
