4 Trends That Will Change the US Economy Forever

I took on a title about a decade ago: Economic Futurist.

It’s not a title I gave to myself. Rather, it’s one that emerged from some work I did helping design investment funds for a Swiss financial firm. These were not your run-of-the-mill mutual funds or anything like that aimed at tracking the S&P or some segment thereof.

These were deeply thought-out funds based on looking ahead many years at what was likely coming our way economically, financially, socially, etc.

Investments included stocks such as a Japanese maker of car “eyeballs” that did well as the electric vehicle trend took off; biotech and high-tech medical devices that would benefit from the increasing demand for pills, potions, and robotics that boomers are demanding to stay spry a little longer; green-tech energy before that was really the big thing it is today; inflation-protection assets to protect against weakening fiat currencies—which I saw coming thanks to the vast sums of debt needed to keep afloat Western economies that were slowing and growing more gray by the day.

I wish I still had a copy of that portfolio so that I could really pinpoint how it performed. But I can tell you it did pretty well because it was where I also put all of my largest retirement account at one point—and that portfolio performed admirably in the decade I owned it.

As I’ve noted in previous writings, however, I gutted that portfolio in 2020. Not because of anything wrong with it or the themes (they’re all still playing out right now), but because I see major upheaval in global finance headed our way. So, I went heavily into gold and Swiss francs in the portfolio. And I do mean heavily: the Swiss currency is nearly 43% of that portfolio, while gold in various forms is almost 38% of the portfolio.

I report these facts because I’ve been thinking about where we go from here. What are the big themes we, as investors and as members of Western society, need to keep top of mind as the rest of this decade plays out and as we move into the 2030s?

I want to answer that question in today’s dispatch by sharing my views on what’s coming toward us. Some parts of it are coming faster than other parts. But they’re all headed our way.

1. America’s Debt Crisis Approaches

I’ve been saying this for several years now, but it is #1 on the hits-to-come parade.

Uncle Sam is well past $35 trillion in debt now. And he’s adding a reported $1 trillion in additional debt every 100 days. Astounding numbers.

Moreover, he will pay an estimated $1.4 trillion in interest payments this year—or about 15% of the projected budget. Again, that is an astounding number.

There is no going back at this point. There is no U-turn. No kill switch. No break-glass-in-case-of-emergency.

We’re past the event horizon and it’s just a waiting game now to see when the debt crisis erupts and through what mechanism. I won’t guess at the mechanism but it will likely be tied to the next president (regardless of who wins).

I will say that I suspect the 2027-28 timeframe is going to be an hellaciously bad period for the U.S. of A. and her currency, totally redefining America and the dollar’s role in the world… That will have profoundly painful implications on American families that are middle class and below.

This is the primary reason I own those francs, gold, silver, and bitcoin.

2. The United States Is Splitting Up

No one wants to hear that. But just because no ref wants to call pass interference against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year doesn’t mean that pass interference isn’t plain as day.

The sad and undeniable reality in America is that Red hates Blue just as much as Blue hates Red. I grew up in the deepest of Red Country and I have lived in the deepest of Blue Country. I know both sides intimately. I have lived and played and worked with both.

And both sides despise everything about the other team.

Moreover, violent rhetoric in America is off the charts. Assassination attempts on a presidential candidate. Elon Mush wondering aloud on Twitter/X why no one is trying to assassinate Kamala Harris. TikTok filled with hateful—hateful—rants promising to unleash hellfire at the end of an AR-15 if a preferred candidate isn’t returned to office.

This is not going to end in a Kiss and Make Up moment.

This will end with the separation of the United States in some fashion.

Again, another reason I own the aforementioned assets. They will all soar when that event destroys the dollar’s place in the world.

3. The World Turns Away From the Dollar

America—and our money—has ruled the global roost since the end of World War 2. That was necessary. The global order needed an anchor on which it could rebuild.

Today, that anchor isn’t a mark of stability but a drag on progress.

The West is in decline. The emerging markets are still growing, and they increasingly feel burdened, annoyed, angry, and pissed by America’s geopolitical dictates and the demands of using the dollar in world trade, when they’d rather use their own currencies to trade with other nations.

All of that is coming to a head in the form of a multipolar world centered around Western and Eastern poles. The West: the US and Europe. The East: China, Asia at large, and other emerging markets.

This will bring about the end of King Dollar as the world’s global reserve currency. In its place a basket of currencies will emerge, or we’ll see a secondary global reserve currency emerge from the BRICS nations, which are now more than 20 countries beyond the original Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

However it goes down, the end result is the end of dollar hegemony—which, again, has profound negative implications for Americans because the world has been subsidizing our consumerism for nearly 80 years. When that merry-go-round stops, the jolt is going to change American lives.

Yet another reason I own the assets I own in such large proportions.

4. Tech, Blockchain, and AI—Oh My!

This is such a large trend it merits its own dispatch… but for now I’ll try to keep it short.

In short: The entire world you and I know is rapidly morphing into one that will be controlled by technology we can’t even comprehend, blockchain that very few people take the time to understand, and artificial intelligence that is so powerful that it will destroy entire industries, by which I mean the end of jobs for most people.

What the backside of that looks like… I honestly struggle to say.

I mean, think about this: Public education in America is already pretty hideous. Way too many kids come out of school not knowing much of anything and they’re already struggling to find jobs beyond the service industry.

But when blockchain, AI, and robotics allow a 25-year-old tech nerd driving around in a Tesla to manage an entire system of fast-food eateries (without a single employee inside) by monkeying around on a tablet computer for a few minutes a day… well, where the hell are all the entry-level jobs going to come from?

Gas stations, supermarkets, pizza joints. They’re all going to be automated.

Same with police and fire. (Have you seen the robots coming out of Boston Dynamics? Seriously, do not Google those videos.) Same with reading X-rays and CT scans. Same with surgeries. Same with practicing law. Same with… well, just about everything.

There will be jobs, sure.

But enough for the nearly 170 million Americans in the US workforce? Or the nearly 200 million workers in Europe? Or… or… or…

These are the four topics that stay top-of-mind for me, almost daily.

They are the biggest changes coming to society, politics, financial markets, and just about every other facet of life you can imagine.

You don’t have to believe me. I am not insisting I am right. Maybe I’m wrong, despite my track record over the last 15 years.

All I ask is that you familiarize yourself with these topics.

Understand why they represent such huge risks to your financial life.

And understand why certain assets are the antidote.